http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displayStory.cfm?story_id=14853256&source=hptextfeature

Japan’s government
Out of tune
Nov 12th 2009 | TOKYO
From The Economist print edition
日本政府-不调和
2009年11月12日|东京

Translated on 17th November, 2009

The Democrats’ debut has been worryingly unharmonious—and the “bond vigilantes” are starting to make groaning noises, too
民主党人不协调的首次登场向来令人担忧-“债券义和团”也开始怨声载道.
*bond vigilantes: Those who sell out government bond when worried about the government’s financial and monetary policies.

Illustration by David SimondsYUKIO HATOYAMA, Japan’s prime minister, likens his role to that of a conductor trying to achieve “harmony”—one of his favourite words—from a pickup orchestra (for which read, novice cabinet).
日本首相大卫西门(鸠山由纪夫)打过一个比方,他是一名指挥,正试图把一支拼凑起来的管弦乐队(亦即,日本新内阁)”调和”-他最喜欢的词语之一.
So far the result has been cacophony.
到目前为止,音乐还是尖锐刺耳.
Ministers have waged war in public and have floated ideas that, in some cases, are downright ludicrous.
大臣们公开争执,甚至产生了这样的想法,有些事情实在是荒唐透顶.
At times they have even challenged Mr Hatoyama’s authority.
他们有时甚至挑战鸠山先生的权威.
To his supporters, this reflects a refreshingly open debate in a new ruling party after decades of cloistered dealmaking.
对他的支持者们来说,这反映了,数十年幕后决策后新执政内部展开的新一轮公开辩论.

When Mr Hatoyama’s Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) swept to power in September, it was largely because of voters’ frustration at half a century of rule by the “iron triangle” of Liberal Democratic politicians, bureaucrats and big business.
当鸠山的日本民主党(DPJ)在9月分掌权,大部分原因是选民厌倦了自民党政客,董事会和高层的”铁三角”统治.
Mr Hatoyama promised a more open and genuinely democratic style of government.
鸠山许诺将成立一个更加开放,真正民主式的政府.

But discord in the cabinet, and a woeful absence of discussion about the budget next year and beyond, have left many worried.
但内阁内部的冲突,缺少对明年以及未来预算的讨论,使得许多人很担忧.
Foreign allies are wondering what the new government stands for.
外国盟友对这个新政府的立场很迷惘.
Investors are beginning to vote with their feet, driving up Japanese government-bond yields.
投资者开始以实际行动来投票,加速抛售政府债券.

The most glaring problem is a diplomatic one: a dispute in relations with America over an American air base in Okinawa, a southern island, which is the subject of a bilateral treaty that the Hatoyama administration wants to review (see Banyan).
最刺眼的问题是外交上的:与美国就Okinawa美空军基地的分歧.位于南方的冲绳岛属于双方协议的一部分,而鸠山当局想要重新考虑这协议(见Banyan).
America has done itself few favours with the new government.
在新政府的帮助下,美国帮到自己一点忙.
In the run up to Barack Obama’s visit to Japan on November 13th, the administration has at times treated its strongest ally in the region with the sort of bossiness that the DPJ came to power vowing to stand up to.
在11月13日巴拉克奥巴马访日的行程中,当局几次以民主党上台以来的最高规格款待了它这一地区最坚实盟友.

But disagreement within the Hatoyama government over whether the air base should be moved within the island, off it, or even out of Japan altogether has made matters worse.
但是鸠山政府内部就岛上空军基地是否应该移动,或者甚至移出日本的争论,一同使事情变得更糟.
The foreign ministry’s insistence on reviewing the treaty so soon after taking office has also distracted both sides from a more important topic: the need to recalibrate their alliance, which next year turns 50, in a way that better reflects post-cold-war realities.
外交部运作后不久就主张重新考虑协定,也令双方都忽略了一个更重要的问题:明年就是他们结盟50周年.有必要以一种反映冷战后现实的方式重新评估调整他们之间的联盟关系.
Mr Hatoyama’s difficulties come, in part, from the DPJ’s coalition partners.
鸠山的麻烦部分来自于民主党的合作伙伴.
To build an upper-house majority before elections next summer, he joined forces with two small parties, the Social Democrats and the People’s New Party, offering both their leaders cabinet positions.
为了在明年夏天大选前占有上议院多数席位,他联合了两个小党派,社会民主党和人民新党,并给予他们的领导人内阁位置.
The pacifist Social Democrats oppose all American military bases in Japan, a view the DPJ does not share.
民主党不同的时,和平主义的社会民主党反对一切美国在日军事基地.

The leader of the People’s New Party is even more of a problem.
人民新党的领袖更是个大问题,
An anti-capitalist maverick, Shizuka Kamei, who is banking and postal-reform minister, seems to be running an alternative government.
银行与邮政改革部长龟井静香是一个反资本主义的异类,他似乎是在运作着第二政府.
His plan to force banks to offer a loan moratorium to small firms has irked Hirohisa Fujii, the finance minister, and rattled markets.
他计划迫使银行为小公司提供无偿贷款,这不仅使财政大臣藤井裕久烦恼不已,还震惊了市场.
Inflammatory comments claiming big business is responsible for a spate of suicides and murders in Japan have embarrassed the rest of the cabinet.
他那番大公司应该对日本自杀,谋杀事件泛滥的病态言论使得内阁其他成员尴尬不已.

Yet Mr Kamei has been able to challenge Mr Hatoyama with impunity.
然后龟井却可以挑战鸠山而免受惩罚.
“If Prime Minister Hatoyama wants to fire me, go ahead. But he can’t,” he declares.
“如果鸠山首相想要朝我开枪,那就来吧.可惜他做不到.”他宣称.
When he drafted in a former civil servant to reverse the privatisation of the postal service, he got away with it, even though one of Mr Hatoyama’s most popular campaign promises was to keep former mandarins out of plush jobs.
当他招募一名前公务员来逆转邮政业私有化,他侥幸做成了,即便鸠山最受欢迎的竞选承诺之一是不起用前要员再但当政府重要职务.

Those who know Mr Hatoyama say it is not his style to be dictatorial.
那些熟悉鸠山的说,一人独断并不是他的风格.
He may also be sweating it out, hoping that success in the upper-house elections will enable him to eject his awkward bedfellows.
他也许还是汗流满面,盼望着上议院选举的胜利可以使他拜托这些棘手的合伙人.
But if Mr Hatoyama does not turn more assertive soon, says Gerald Curtis, a veteran Japan watcher at Columbia University in New York, “the image of a government in disarray, pulling in different directions and spending time back-pedalling from half-baked or unbaked policy ideas, will grow stronger and undermine…support.”
但如果鸠山不快点变得果断些,纽约哥伦比亚大学的一名资深日本观察者杰拉德·柯蒂斯说,”一个向着各个方向扩展,在半熟不熟的政策想法上倒退的,漫无次序的政府形象将逐渐恶化,最终侵蚀基础,”

And as if the cabinet is not causing enough headaches, Ichiro Ozawa, head of the DPJ and the man considered the “shadow shogun” in Japanese politics, is also throwing his weight around.
但好像内阁并不那么令人头痛,被认为是”影子幕府”的民主党领导人小泽一郎 ,又在到处发威.
*shogun: A chief military commander existed in Japanese history.
On November 10th he attacked Christianity, calling it an “exclusive and self-righteous religion”.
11月10日他攻击了基督教,称之为”一个排他,自以为是的宗教”.
Not a message likely to endear him to the visiting Americans.
这一信息使得他不被到访的美国人接受.

It may not feel like it while Mr Obama is in town, but Mr Hatoyama has an even more powerful constituency demanding reassurance: the bond market.
尽管奥巴马先生还在城里,但感觉并非如此,鸠山有位更加强大的选民需要得到保证:债券市场.
Since he took office, analysts say derivatives markets have suggested there are growing fears among “bond vigilantes” of rising government-funding costs in a few years’ time.
自从他上台以来,分析家们说,衍生产品市场暗示了”债权团员”对未来几年财政支出上升的担忧增多.
Gross debt already stands at a staggering 180% of GDP.
总债务已经令人吃惊地达到了GDP的180%.
In a recent report, JPMorgan, an American bank, gave warning that the costs of coping with a shrinking and ageing population could push that ratio to 300% in a decade, and send debt-service costs soaring.
美国摩根大通银行在近期一份报告中警告,用以应付人口减少,老龄化的开销将在10年后把这一数字推升至300%,并使得债户业务成本激增.

With the deficit in the current fiscal year expected to hit 10% of GDP, there are concerns that next year the government will be forced to raise its borrowing target above the current 44 trillion yen ($489 billion).
财政赤字将在这一年度达到GDP的10%,开始有人担忧明年政府将不得不提高借贷目标,超过目前的440日元(4890亿美元).
This week Fitch Ratings said it may review Japan’s debt rating if the government issues substantially more debt.
本周Fitch Ratings说,如果政府发行更多债券,它将重新评估日本的负债率.

The concerns have flourished partly because there is so little clarity about future budgets.
担忧的日益严重,部分是因为未来预算的不明朗.
The DPJ promised to set up a new body, the National Strategy Bureau, to set medium-term fiscal goals, to be headed by the deputy prime minister, Naoto Kan.
民主党许诺成立一个由副首相菅直人领导的新团体-国家策略局来制定中期财政目标.
But nothing has been done about implementing this promise in parliament, though it was considered a priority on taking office.
但是国会并未就实现此诺言做任何行动,虽然它在运作上须优先考虑.

Markets were somewhat reassured this week when Mr Fujii, the finance minister, acknowledged that rising bond yields were indeed a worry.
本周,当财政部长藤井先生得知债券转让上升只限于担心而已,市场情绪有所稳定.
But he has recently appeared to pin his hopes on a rebounding economy to raise tax revenues and on eliminating waste to cut the deficit.
但近来他似乎寄希望于经济复苏以提高税收和消除浪费以减少赤字.
Neither can be counted on.
两者都不被看好.

An economic rebound would anyway be a cyclical benefit, whereas there is pressure from many parts of the DPJ for a structural increase in spending in order to provide European-style welfare protection.
不管怎么说,经济复苏会带来循环效益,然而仍有来自民主党多个部门的压力,为了提供欧洲式的福利保险,政府开支需要一个结构性的增加.
Their voices may grow louder even as Mr Fujii tries to hold down borrowing.
尽管鸠山先生努力压低借贷,他们的声音仍然会增大.
Mr Hatoyama will have the final say.
Hatoyama先生拥有最终话语权.
Perhaps he needs to remember, amid cacophony, that some of the best conductors are despots.
或许他需要记住,不调和中,有一些最好的指挥是专制者.